The 2024 Canberra grass pollen season is looking a lot like last year’s. In 2023, Canberra saw 27 high and extreme grass pollen days between October and December, which was a bit heavier than usual. This year, we're expecting a similar number of bad days for hay fever and asthma.

But there’s a catch – this prediction depends on whether we get above-average spring rainfall. If that happens, we’ll likely see a burst of grass growth toward the end of the season, which could make things rough for those with allergies.

Let’s break down the current conditions. Winter 2024 in the ACT experienced below-average rainfall, with total accumulations reaching only 60% of the long-term average at Canberra Airport. Mean maximum temperatures were notably above the seasonal average, contributing to reduced soil moisture levels. Yet despite this, current root zone soil moisture levels have improved since 2023. Adequate root zone soil moisture levels are critical for grass growth and flowering.

Satellite images showing vegetation greenness in and around Canberra for September 2024 (left) and September 2023 (right). Image adpted from the Bureau of Meteorology.

How have these conditions affected surrounding grasslands, which are the source of much of Canberra's grass pollen? The second figure compares satellite images of vegetation greenness in in September 2024 (left) and September 2023 (right). Sattelite data suggests that grasslands around the ACT are greener compared to the same period last year. This suggests that grass growth has been more robust this year, potentially due to slightly improved soil moisture levels over last year's record lows.

Satellite images showing vegetation greenness around Canberra for September 2024 (left) and September 2023 (right).

Turning to the rainfall forecast, the final image shows there's a 60-65% chance of above-media rainfall around Canberra through the end of the year.

Map showing the chance of above average rainfall across Australia between October and December this year. Image adapted from the Bureau of Meteorology.

So, what does all this mean? Given the current conditions and forecasts, the grass pollen season in Canberra may mirror or even exceed those of last year. Favorable weather, especially in October, could drive additional grass growth and lead to a heavier season in November and December. If you have allergies, it’s smart to stay alert and take steps to protect your health as the season progresses.

How to Prepare

For those affected by hay fever or asthma, preparation is crucial. Stay informed by tracking daily pollen counts via the Canberra Pollen App and adjust your plans on high pollen days. Make sure to consult with healthcare providers to have an action plan in place, especially if you suffer from asthma or allergies.

Where to Get Pollen Information

The Canberra Pollen App is available on both the Apple and Google Play Stores , offering real-time notifications about pollen levels. You can also follow the Canberra Pollen team on X (formally Twitter) and Facebook for updates.